It’s finally here. The Minnesota State football team plays at Sioux Falls on Saturday, which has been an intriguing date since the schedule came out, and as expected, there’s plenty riding on the outcome.

Sioux Falls was the best team in the Northern Sun Intercollegiate Conference last season, and it looked like it might be the same until All-American running back Max Mickey went down with injury a month ago. Minnesota State missed the NCAA playoffs last season, but there was enough young talent on that team that at least modest improvement was expected.

So come Saturday, these teams will play for the Northern Sun championship and likely the highest seed of any conference team in the playoffs. The loser could be very disappointed on Saturday and even more depressed when the NCAA announces its 28-team field for the national tournament without that team in the field.

And there’s always the revenge factor. Minnesota State doesn’t lose back-to-back games to conference opponents very often.

过去10周,明尼苏达州the best team in the Northern Sun, achieving the team’s goal of going 1-0 each week and clinching a share of the conference championship. The Mavericks haven’t been tested too severely, with just a couple of games still in doubt in the fourth quarter.

But now, it gets real.

Minnesota State is rated No. 1 in one of the national polls, No. 2 in the other, but those are just opinions, sometimes without much research. Sioux Falls has consistently been rated ahead of Winona State, even though the Warriors won the head-to-head matchup earlier this season. There’s not enough out-of-conference play in Division II football to determine if Minnesota State is better than Shepherd or Indiana (Pa.) or Fort Hays State, but it’s something to debate.

In Division II, the region rankings are what determines NCAA berths. Those rankings are based on criteria and a mathematical formula, with such variables as strength of schedule, road record and in-region outcomes.

That’s why you can have Minnesota State rated No. 1 in the nation but No. 2 in the region, as it was two weeks ago.

Here’s one guess at how things will look after Saturday’s results. With a victory, Minnesota State keeps the No. 1 seed in the region and gets a first-round bye. In that scenario, Winona State, with a victory against Augustana on Thursday night, holds at No. 4 and will host a playoff game on Saturday, Nov. 18. Sioux Falls would likely hold on at No. 7, but there are plenty of possibilities that the Cougars get bumped out.

With a win over Minnesota State on Saturday, Sioux Falls moves up to No. 3, followed by Minnesota State at 4 and Winona State at 5. That would set up a rematch between the Mavericks and Winona State at Blakeslee Stadium on Nov. 18. There’s still a possibility that if Minnesota State loses to Sioux Falls, the Mavericks or Winona State could miss the playoffs.

So, it seems as though the Mavericks are the best team in the Northern Sun, maybe a year ahead of schedule. But in college football, one loss can spoil a season. It’s no longer in the hands of pollsters or committee members; Minnesota State controls its destiny.

Which is why you pick out these dates when the schedule comes out.

Chad Courrier is a Free Press staff writer. To contact him, call 507-344-6353, e-mail at ccourrier@mankatofreepress.comor follow his Twitter feed@ChadCourrier.

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